Stats, Facts and Huge Global Shifts (not really)

Here they come…

We’ve got four South American countries in the quarter finals of the World Cup, at the expense of the traditional European teams, and here come the theories to explain this dramatic storyline: The decline of European domination! The rest of the world is catching up! Europe needs to reevaluate everything! Too many foreign players playing in the Premiership and the Serie A and so on.

So what conclusions can we draw? What does this mean? For the most part, nothing. True, the gap between the traditional soccer powers and the rest of the world is not as big as it once was. It’s no longer a stroll through the park for the big guns.

But as far as themes, in Germany 2006, the four semi-finalists were all from Europe. Has it all gone down the toilet for them in just four years? Of course not. You throw Italy, England or France back into the mix and we’re back to “normal”. And each of those countries had their own unique and, statistically speaking, random circumstances that caused their collective premature exits. Nothing more. There really isn't a big story here in 2010.

But in general, they like to run with any stats and facts in the World Cup…

“No South American team has ever been beaten by an Asian team on a Tuesday” or "Brazil wins 75% of their games when leading by a goal after half time when the scorer's name begins with the letter R" or “No team has ever won the World Cup when they’ve lost an opening round game.” OK, so those aren’t all actual quotes, but they’re close. Just wait should Brazil or Argentina win this year in Africa, we'll be hearing all about how no European team can win outside of Europe once again and hear all kinds of reasons (the secret with this: Brazil and Argentina were the best teams).

Perhaps I'll buy into the historical significance of the stats a little later in the century when we have more history to draw from and when the results are truly more predictable and the stats more meaningful (or until some statistician writes a book proving otherwise). For now, congrats to South America for doing well so far.

I’ll leave you with one last stat…

Do you know how many times Brazil and Germany had played each other in a World Cup before they met in the 2002 final? And keep in mind, these two teams had been in 13 of the previous 18 FINAL matches. The answer: Zero. That was their first meeting.

So should they meet again this time, Germany’s in big trouble: Brazil has beaten them 100% of the time in World Cup play (on Sundays).

The No-call Goal Spares England

The good news for England in light of the dreadful decision to not count Frank Lampard's goal is that they are actually being spared from receiving the full brunt of criticism on their performance. Instead, we're talking about goal-line technology and FIFA’s stubbornness as well. For sure, there’s still a ton of blame placed on the players, the FA, Capello, etc -- but they're getting a decent diversion nonetheless.

While there can be no doubt England were robbed of a goal and that a single goal certainly has a big impact on the game, I’m falling into the camp that believes Germany were on their game and that England would have still lost under any circumstances.

Based on what I saw (for all 4 games), I'm just not seeing any chance that England would have miraculously found some new, higher level of play had the game been tied. They came out in the second half as flat, disorganized and uninspired as they had in the three previous games. And I ‘m sorry, a 1 nil win over Slovenia with the only goal coming off DeFoe’s shin does not equate to the “The Lion’s have roared!” proclamation and the belief that all of their problems are solved as the England coach and press were going on about afterward.

Part of what’ driving this rant against England is when I saw David James’ post game comment of: “Germany would have crumbled had the goal counted…” I beg your pardon? This was a totally lame comment coming from a very average keeper who personally should have dealt with three of Germany’s goals had he been playing better. Talk about a state of denial. Or how about: “we would have come out full throttle after the half…” from the absent Rio Ferdinand? So Rio, are you saying that at one goal down in a World Cup knock out game, England wasn’t already motivated enough to come out at “full throttle”? Was half-throttle all that was needed?

In fact, I’m almost ready to say enough to this much hyped England-Germany rivalry. I’m getting a little tired of the English press, fans and players talking this thing up every time. Yes, it’s a big game. So is Germany-Argentina, Holland-Brazil, but enough with the ’66 Final references, the PK history, the WW2 stuff (“Two World Wars and One World Cup, doo-dah, doo-dah” …don’t Germany’s three World Cups and three European titles, and the fact that they qualify for every tournament sort of make that a moot point?)…

But notice I said “almost” – with German victories like this 4:1, I’m perfectly happy to keep up the hype a bit longer.

Forget Technology, Just Do Away with Audience Replays...

While I don't have the energy or interest to restart this discussion again (with Lamp's disallowed goal yesterday, the coverage is in full swing), I just can't resist this one...

By George, FIFA's got it!

Hey, forget all this senseless debate about how to prevent these devastatingly bad calls we're seeing in the World Cup -- FIFA's just decided to apply a touch of short-term censorship: they're going to ban replays of controversial calls in the stadiums. Brilliant! Perhaps it was a suggestion from the North Koreans as they were boarding their plane home.

I say we take it a step further and ban all replays everywhere: TV, stadiums, even YouTube. That should do the trick. Next...

The Ugly Side of the Beautiful Game

The US’s disallowed goal? The only thing I’d add to that crazy story is another argument for introducing some degree of video reviews for critical calls in a game (goals, penalty kicks, red cards, yellow cards, diving/faking for starters). They wouldn’t need to do this 5-minute NFL style triple commercial break interruption – Just a quick video review by a 5th official to say yes/no to certain calls through the head ref’s headset – the call could be made in a few seconds. No biggie.

There are simply too many cases where a bad call (or bad calls) has a gigantic effect on a game’s outcome. And with modern technology, there’s simply no reason not to do something.

A side benefit to video reviews during a game is that they would offer players a few moments rest…A bad thing you say? Am I crazy for thinking this! Actually, I think it would take away some of the diving and acting we currently see. A big reason why players go down and stay down, especially later in the games, is to provide a quick chance for players to catch their breath. A few seconds here and there for call reviews might just help minimize those delays already happening.

I’m not saying there wouldn’t be some drawbacks to video reviews, but the benefits would outweigh the negatives. This is certainly not an original idea and no one should be holding their breath for FIFA to make changes…It’s just that each time there’s a huge controversial call in the beautiful game, it makes it look ugly…and worse yet, it arms all the haters another reason to take jabs at the game -- even though I don't care what the haters think ; )

And an unrelated side note: Media, stop attempting to use descriptive words like “mastermind” regarding Maradona’ s coaching! He’s a half crazy, former world great that has Lionel Messi on his team. Please. Mourinho, Ferguson, Hitzfeld, Van Gaal...those guys are masterminds. Diego, no.

Germany: Back Down to Earth

I’m recovering well from Germany’s disappointing return to earth on Friday, thanks for all the cards and flowers.

Indeed, the pain of sport when your team goes from being the hot side in the tournament to just another team trying to get out of the group stage, all in the blink of an eye. To be honest, a huge boost has been simply due to the fact that I'm not a fan of England, France or Spain. Ouch. While the latter will likely pull through the group stage, that may put them directly in front of Brazil. But England and France’s chances of advancement are not completely in their direct control (England especially, wow, what a story here...Remember that great player Wayne Rooney, I wonder what happened to him? I would have thought he'd be playing for England at this World Cup)...

But back to Die Mannschaft’s game, I’m not buying all of the media’s credit to Serbia for the “shock” win -- they won because they’re a good team that played with a man advantage for most of the game. Despite that, Germany had 58% possession and 16 shots on goal compared to 10. Germany’s keeper, other than letting in the goal, did not have to make a single save. Clearly with some better finishing from Podolski and they could have easily tied or even won.

What kills me about that card-wielding ref (4 of 10 yellow cards in the first 20 minutes alone) is that had he remained consistent with his yellow cards, the odds would have favored that at some point Serbia would have also had someone sent off. Thus bringing game back into balance. But no, in the second half the ref tamed his cards and let play go on more normally. For Germany, the damage was done.

I know I'm not being a good sport here, but it's painful when bad officiating has such an affect on the game (see next post). What matters now is for Germany to finish top of the group – with a win against Ghana (who really hasn’t shown much, only two goals from PKs) they’ll achieve that.

And who knows, their Round of 16 opponents just might be Slovenia if England can’t improve.

First Game Recap and the Vuvuzelas

As of now, each team has played their first game of the group stage and here are a few of the themes:

> The big teams failing to make the big statements: With Germany being the lone exception, most of the heavily favored teams failed to dazzle us. Some looked good but couldn't get their the goals (Argentina, Brazil, Spain, Holland), some teams looked a little flat and disorganized (Portugal, Ivory Coast, England) and some looked lost (France).

> Few goals scored: I'm waiting for the stats on how the goal tallys compare to previous tournaments -- They've got to be on the low side. Could it be the ball everyone's complaining about? (there were a lot of really off shots.)? Obviously though, this is largely due to teams being very conservative in their opening games, feeling each other out, not wanting to take big risks. We can expect this to change as teams need to open up and go for it.

> The vuvuzelas...

I’m not buying the argument that you only hate vuvuzelas if you don’t have one. They’re absolutely awful and mindless.

Besides the obvious issue of them being completely annoying, what bothers me the most is they actually take away from the games…We’re losing the cheering, the songs, the chants. When a goal is scored and you expect to hear the roar of the crowd, we get nothing, just the same incessant buzz. I remember seeing an exciting breakaway during the first game and immediately noticing there was no change in the background sound. I'd love to hear what the players think.

I remember in the MLS’s earlier days when the crowds were a few thousand, you’d hear one or two every 10 seconds and I hated them then. This is a whole new level. I’ve heard ESPN has tried to minimize them in the TV broadcast and I commend them for that (now if we can just get them to take away the update ticker at the bottom of the screen. Note to ESPN: I’m just making a guess here, but most World Cup fans don’t want to see the latest MLB stats during the World Cup).

It’s a safe bet this World Cup will forever be remembered by these things unless, in the reaming three weeks we see more Hands from Gods or head-butts.

Now it's on each team's second game to see how everyone reacts to their current position. Bring 'em on!

Germany: Better off Without Ballack?! You're Kidding Right?

So Germany’s 2010 World Cup is off to a near perfect start. I couldn’t be happier. Unlike some of the other big teams, they showed no troubles in making a strong opening statement (referring to less than stellar performances from the likes of Argentina, Holland, France, Italy, England…Of course Brazil and Spain have yet to play). True, Cahill’s straight red card was a bit brutal but I don’t think the score-line would have changed much with him in the whole game. Germany were pretty solid in back, they were full of good, sharp passing and movement throughout and fun to watch (equally important, no one really played poorly). And Polodski's opener, please!

I have to confess that despite his talent, I’m still having trouble with Cacau’s presence on the team. I’m not a fan of countries “adopting” these Brazilians who opt to play for foreign teams because they’ll never get to play for Brazil. Especially Germany, I can see San Marino doing this, but Germany, come on. And before you go there, these “naturalized” foreign born players are entirely different than those players who have foreign heritage but that basically grew up in Germany (or whatever country) since their childhood (like Klose, Podolski, Ozil and, well…basically half of the team)…Again, this is totally different.

Speaking of Klose and Podolski, it’s huge that they got their goals considering their Bundesliga combined goal tally was something like…three. Seriously…and they’re starting a World Cup. I wouldn’t even want to compare, say, Argentina’s top striker's goal tally (OK, its’ 84. That’s 34 for Messi, 27 for Higuain and 23 for Tevez…106 if you add in Milito’s 22 off the bench…that’s sick). And it’s comforting to know Germany can still take it up a notch by not missing as many opportunities: Ozil once again did brilliantly to get in front of goal but failed to finish. Klose had a couple missed chances too. It’s only the first game, I can’t get too excited yet.

All this brings up a good question: Is Germany better off without Ballack?

On the one hand, no. Absolutely not. He’s the captain, he’s a leader, he has loads of experience and despite being a bit past his prime, in watching him towards the end of his Chelsea season, he was superb with his reading of the game and one-touch, perfect ball distribution. I’ve always said, while soccer is not about stats, if you tracked the guy who gave the ball to the guy who provided the assist, Ballack would be high on that list…the assist to the assist. And Germany doesn’t have that Lampard/Gerrard dilemma, each of their midfielders has a clear role. While Sami Khedira did well, I don’t for a second believe he can do anything Ballack cannot.

On the other hand, well, there’s that number 13 thing going on…

Everyone knows his always-a-bridesmaid story: At Leverkusen, he scored an own-goal that essentially cost them the Bundesliga title one year (a title they've still never won), he was second place in the Champions League TWICE, with Leverkusen and Chelsea, he missed the 2002 World Cup final against Brazil with a yellow card suspension (I will forever wonder the outcome had he played…Germany of course lost 2:0 but had more possession and shots on target, and Ballack was on fire that tournament…), with him as Germany’s captain, they narrowly missed the 2006 World Cup final with a last minute extra time defeat to Italy (another huge “what-if”), in Euro ‘08 he was again on the runner’s up stand. And now, he gets this injury on his LAST competitive game before the World Cup.

Ultimately I’d take him back in two seconds -- but without him out, I’m just saying…