I'm not claiming anything completely original here, but here’s my run-down of the 32 teams at the 2010 World Cup nonetheless. I won’t bother with predictions other than to say the winner will come from Tier One or Tier Three (look for random predictions in the coming days, we're just getting started):
Tier One: The Stratosphere Teams
There are two clear favorites who have it all. No other teams are near them in terms of depth and quality. Each and every position for these teams (and even the benches) is occupied by true world-class players. When they’re on their game, they’re untouchable. Easy bets to be in the final:
> Brazil...Brazil, like usual, could easily field two separate teams to compete
> Spain...Ah, to be a fan of Spanish fútbol these days, good times. Broke their curse by winning Euro08 and haven't lost a step. Freaky good.
Tier Two: The Usual Favorites Yet None of Them Will Win Teams
These teams are made up of about half world-class players and about half really good players. Any of these teams could easily win the World Cup if everything goes right (or they don’t choke). They are:
> Holland...Excellent club seasons for many of these guys. I've always liked the Dutch, a pity I can't root for them
> Argentina...Some questionable picks by a coach who may actually be insane. And yes, they have that one player
> England...Great talent, new coach and...oh...why bother (they peaked in April)
> France...Could crash hard or pull something out of this
Tier Three: The Tournament Teams
Tucked in under Tier Two, this special group is reserved for only two teams. Regardless of their talent, world-class or not, these teams know how to pull it together at major tournaments and win (or come close):
> Germany (3 World Cups, 4 times runner up)...My team of course. Lowered expectations but that's what they said in '02. True, no Ballack, no strikers (except a Brazilian, can't believe Die Mannshaft resorted to this). I'm feeling Podolski, Schweini, Lahm and the rest of the young guns to come through
> Italy (4 World Cups, 2 times runners up)...With respect, I'm not a big fan of this team, no identity right now (oh, and two of their four World Cup trophies were in '34 and '38 when the tournament wasn't half of what it is today...just had to point that out)
Tier Four: One-Horse Teams
These teams have one or two world-class players and a solid supporting cast. The problem with these teams is they’re too dependent on their stars and don’t have enough experience to do it. Don’t listen to the pro analysts, these teams won’t do anything this time. They are:
> Portugal...Not gonna happen, sorry C-Ron
> Ivory Coast...if Drogba doesn’t play, then Côte d'Ivoire drops a full two tiers to tier six
Tier Five: Dark Horse Teams
These teams don’t have any true World-All-Stars (or perhaps one), but can play top drawer stuff on a good day. They are:
> USA...I like this team
> Serbia...There's something about this team that scares me
> Cameroon...It's really all about Eto'o
> Ghana...With Essien out injured these guys really should be down a tier
Tier Six: Good for One Great Game Teams
These are respectable to semi-respectable teams. But truth be told, they are really only at the World Cup because they had their act together during qualification (when other/better teams did not); or because their qualifying region isn’t that strong:
> Mexico
> Denmark
> Switzerland...Go future Seattle Sounder Blaise Nkufo and German coach Hitzfeld!
> Uruguay
> Paraguay...name to remember: Lucas Barrios
> Honduras
> Japan
> Australia
> Slovakia
> Greece
> South Korea
> Nigeria
Tier Seven: Why The Euro Cup Can be Considered a Better Tournament Teams
These are teams that I couldn’t name a single player. Their presence at the World Cup is a reason why there’s an argument among some purists that the European Championship is a stronger tournament in terms of pure talent (brutal I know). But then this wouldn't be the World Cup now would it:
> Chile
> Slovenia
> North Korea...Please
> Algeria
> New Zealand
> South Africa...the hosts automatically qualify and I wish them luck
There you have it. Now let's get this thing started so we can see how it unfolds.
(My wish: Germany and Holland in the final with an exact repeat of '74)
Tschüß
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Nice breakdown. My $.02: I would move Germany to Tier 2 and France to Tier 3. The vibe is all wrong for France after that bs handball goal by Henry against Ireland, plus they have an idiot for a coach. Germany moves up to Tier 2 on pedigree and past performance alone, plus they have some nice young players.
ReplyDeleteAlso, I would move Mexico up to Tier 5 or maybe even 4. They have three young stars in the making and just beat Italy and outplayed England in a loss.
Chile should probably also be higher based on what I have read. Tim Vickery says they could really impress in this tournament and he has them advancing to the second round (Swiss go home).
They'll be no dissing Australia (or the Socceroos as we call them) until after the game against Germany. After that I'm fairly certain you'll be able to sledge us as much as you want...They're saying in the Australian press that they (the Socceroos) are aiming for a DRAW! what about getting out there and trying to win, for God's sake.
ReplyDeleteAngela -- I'm just thrilled to see you comment here! And you'll note I said "respectable" teams, clearly meaning the Socceroos :)
ReplyDeleteAnd you're correct, once the games start we'll see how my thoughts hold up. Can't wait for Sunday!
Good stuff Erik!
ReplyDelete